Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Detroit Tigers at Busch Stadium in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. The Cardinals are currently in a solid position with a record of 27-22, while the Tigers are having a great season at 32-17. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially as they look to solidify their standings.

In their last game, the Tigers showcased their strength with a decisive victory, continuing their impressive run. They are expected to start Brant Hurter, who has been a bright spot with an excellent ERA of 2.35. However, projections suggest that Hurter may be due for some regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.44, indicating he has been a bit fortunate thus far.

On the other side, the Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante has had an average season with a 4-2 record and an ERA of 4.11, but advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a downturn, as indicated by his elevated xERA of 4.76. Pallante's low strikeout rate could play into the hands of a Tigers offense that ranks as the 5th best in MLB, known for its power and tendency to strike out.

The Cardinals boast the 6th best offense in MLB, driven by a potent batting average that ranks 2nd overall. They have the advantage of facing a pitcher who, while effective, is projected for a shorter outing of around 4.4 innings. With the Cardinals' implied team total sitting at 4.30 runs, they hold a favorable outlook against the Tigers.

Betting markets reflect the close nature of this matchup, with the Cardinals at -115 and the Tigers at -105. With both teams looking to capitalize on their strengths, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Brant Hurter to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

This season, Spencer Torkelson has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.6 mph compared to last year's 90.5 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has utilized his secondary pitches 5.3% more often this season (36.2%) than he did last season (30.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.7) may lead us to conclude that Pedro Pages has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 17.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.27, St. Louis Cardinals 4.22

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brant Hurter - Tigers
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

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