Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/7/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On August 7, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup for both teams. The Mariners, currently holding a record of 59-54, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Tigers sit at 53-60, struggling below the Mendoza line. In their most recent outing, the Mariners faced the Tigers and the Tigers came out on top despite Luis Castillo being on the mound for Seattle.

Seattle's George Kirby, the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, will take the mound. Kirby has been solid this season, with a record of 8-7 and a commendable ERA of 3.04. However, he faces a tricky challenge against Detroit's Tarik Skubal, who is currently the top-ranked pitcher in the league, boasting a 12-4 record and an impressive 2.57 ERA. This clash of elite pitchers could dictate the game’s outcome, especially considering that both offenses have underperformed this season.

The Mariners' offense ranks 26th in MLB, struggling particularly in batting average, where they sit at the bottom of the league. In contrast, the Tigers also rank poorly, sitting at 27th overall. With both teams lacking offensive firepower, the projected Game Total of 6.5 runs reflects this expectation of a low-scoring affair.

Despite the Mariners' moneyline of -135 suggesting a tight contest, their pitching advantage with Kirby could tip the scales in their favor. Kirby’s ability to limit earned runs and Skubal’s high strikeout rate against a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts may create an intriguing dynamic to watch.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.2-mph spike from last year's 95-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Javier Baez's true offensive talent to be a .293, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .080 disparity between that mark and his actual .213 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Detroit's 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the game: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Recording 17.7 outs per game per started this year on average, George Kirby falls in the 88th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 99 games (+9.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 78% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 2.96 vs Seattle Mariners 3.16

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.