Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/6/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On August 6, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park for the first game of a pivotal series. As both teams are mired in mediocrity, the Mariners currently hold a record of 59-54, while the Tigers sit at 53-60. The Mariners are showing some promise with an above-average season so far, while the Tigers are lagging behind with a disappointing record.

This matchup features Luis Castillo, who has had a solid season with a 3.43 ERA and ranks as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Castillo's recent form has been encouraging; he projects to pitch approximately 6.3 innings today while allowing just 1.9 earned runs on average. Conversely, Keider Montero has struggled significantly this season with a 6.18 ERA and an unimpressive 1-5 record over 8 starts. Montero's projections indicate he will struggle to pitch effectively, expected to only go about 4.9 innings while giving up 2.4 earned runs.

Offensively, the Mariners hold the 26th spot in MLB in team rankings, which is concerning. However, Mitch Haniger has been their standout performer lately, batting .357 with a 1.256 OPS over the last week. He could be pivotal in turning the tide against a Tigers lineup that has also struggled, ranking 27th in overall hitting.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Bligh Madris is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 61.7% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has been unlucky this year. His .283 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 56 games at home (+17.05 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.10 Units / 29% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.07 vs Seattle Mariners 4.28

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