Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 3/31/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on March 31, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their shaky starts to the season. The Mariners currently sit at a .500 record of 2-2, while the Tigers are struggling at 0-3. Despite both teams battling early-season woes, the Mariners are favored in this matchup, with their current moneyline set at -120, indicating a close contest.

The Mariners' Emerson Hancock is projected to take the mound. While he has struggled in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, currently sitting as the 439th best starting pitcher in MLB, he does possess some upside with projections that include allowing only 2.2 earned runs over 5.1 innings. However, the projections also indicate potential issues, as Hancock is expected to give up 4.5 hits and 1.4 walks, which could put him in tough spots.

Jackson Jobe, starting for the Tigers, shares a similar narrative. He ranks poorly among MLB pitchers, and his projections show he may only pitch 4.3 innings while allowing a good 1.9 earned runs. However, with 3.7 hits and 1.4 walks expected, he too could find himself in a challenging position.

At the plate, the Mariners' offense ranks 22nd overall but is buoyed by their 13th rank in home runs, suggesting some potential for power. Meanwhile, the Tigers lag behind, ranking 25th in overall offense and struggling significantly with a 24th rank in home runs. This matchup may hinge on whether the Mariners' offense can capitalize on Jobe's weaknesses.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs set, bettors should note the tight lines reflecting both teams’ early-season unpredictability. As both teams seek their first series win, the Mariners appear better positioned to take advantage of their home-field advantage and the Tigers' offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Ranked in the 3rd percentile, Ryan Kreidler's average exit velocity of 82 mph ranks among the lowest in baseball since the start of last season.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Gleyber Torres has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Emerson Hancock to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

As it relates to his batting average, Victor Robles has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .307 BA has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games at home (+11.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 82 games (+24.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+3.60 Units / 120% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jackson Jobe - Tigers
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

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