Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/9/2024

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on August 9, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in an interleague matchup. Currently, the Giants sit at 59-58, holding onto a slim lead over the Tigers, who are 55-61. Despite their average season, the Giants are gaining some traction, having just defeated the Washington Nationals 9-5 in their last outing. Meanwhile, the Tigers are coming off a narrow 4-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners, increasing their struggles as they attempt to break out of a below-average season.

On the mound for the Giants, Robbie Ray will take the start. Ray has been solid this year, boasting a 2-1 record with a 4.40 ERA. His recent performance shows promise; in his last start on August 4, he went five innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out nine batters. While his projected 5.4 innings pitched this game is typical, he projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs, which could be pivotal against the Tigers’ struggling offense, ranked 26th in the league.

Beau Brieske will start for the Tigers, but his recent performance has been concerning. In his last start, he lasted only one inning, yielding three earned runs. His projected 1.2 innings pitched today doesn't inspire confidence, especially against a Giants offense ranked 13th in MLB. While the Giants have issues with home runs, they are better positioned to capitalize on Brieske’s struggles.

The Giants are favored in this matchup with a high implied team total of 4.32 runs, while the projections suggest the Tigers will struggle to reach 3.18 runs. With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 1st in the league, they are well-equipped to close out the game if they can build a lead early. As both teams aim to gain traction, this matchup carries significant implications for their respective seasons.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jake Rogers's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 88.6-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 83.7-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit's 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Detroit Tigers have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Fitzgerald's true offensive skill to be a .303, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .118 deviation between that figure and his actual .421 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+12.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 away games (+23.00 Units / 164% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.47 vs San Francisco Giants 4.26

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