Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/11/2024

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will host the Detroit Tigers on August 11, 2024, in the third game of their series at Oracle Park. Both teams are currently struggling to make significant progress, with the Giants sitting at 61-58, having a mediocre season, while the Tigers are at 55-63, reflecting a below-average performance. In their last game on August 10, the Giants secured a 3-1 victory over the Tigers, continuing their push for a better standing.

The Giants will send right-handed pitcher Hayden Birdsong to the mound. Birdsong has had his ups and downs this season, with a 3-1 record and a 4.73 ERA, which is considered average. However, he was hit hard in his previous outing, allowing 7 earned runs in just 2 innings. While Birdsong's 4.21 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, his recent struggles make this matchup concerning. He projects to allow 1.9 earned runs over 4.9 innings today, suggesting some vulnerability.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with Keider Montero, who has been less effective this season, posting a 2-5 record and a troubling 5.62 ERA. Despite a solid outing in his last start, where he allowed only 1 earned run over 6 innings, Montero has struggled overall. His projections indicate he might allow 2.6 earned runs over 4.7 innings, which could keep the Giants' offense engaged.

With the Giants' offense ranked 13th in the league, they have the potential to capitalize on Montero's inconsistencies. The projections favor the Giants, giving them an average projected total of 4.54 runs against the Tigers' lowly 3.47. As the Giants look to build momentum after their recent victory, they are positioned as strong favorites to take this matchup.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero has compiled a 5.62 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that concentrates on the things a pitcher has the most control over) this year, placing in the 19th percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Akil Baddoo is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Detroit Tigers batters as a group rank near the cellar of MLB this year ( 8th-worst) as it relates to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 89th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Matt Chapman has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games at home (+9.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+9.05 Units / 113% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.47 vs San Francisco Giants 4.54

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