Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/10/2024

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Faedo - Tigers
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on August 10, 2024, at Oracle Park, the stakes are high following an intense matchup the previous day. The Giants edged out the Tigers with a narrow 3-2 victory, showcasing their resilience as they aim to build momentum. Currently, San Francisco holds a record of 60-58, placing them in a solid position despite an average season, while Detroit sits at 55-62, struggling to find consistency.

Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants, boasting an impressive reputation as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Webb has excelled this season with a 3.42 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 9-8 across 24 starts. In his last appearance on August 5, he pitched a strong 6 innings allowing only 1 earned run, striking out 4 batters, and demonstrating his elite capability. The projections indicate that he’s expected to allow just 1.9 earned runs today, further solidifying the Giants' favor in this matchup.

Conversely, the Tigers will rely on Alex Faedo, who has faced challenges this season with a 3.69 ERA and a FIP of 4.70. His recent performances are underwhelming, and he is projected to pitch only 1.6 innings in this game. With San Francisco's offense ranked 13th in MLB, and bolstered by the recent hot streak of Michael Conforto, they appear well-equipped to capitalize on any mistakes by Faedo.

The Giants are currently seen as significant favorites with a moneyline of -220 and an implied team total of 4.43 runs, while the Tigers are projected to struggle, with an implied total of just 3.07 runs. With the leading MLB projection system estimating the Giants' win probability at 72%, this matchup may present valuable betting opportunities for those looking to back San Francisco.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Javier Baez are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Logan Webb (56.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In the last week, Matt Chapman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.4% up to 33.3%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 15 away games (+13.20 Units / 57% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 2.94 vs San Francisco Giants 4.58

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