Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ty Madden - Tigers
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On September 2, 2024, the San Diego Padres welcome the Detroit Tigers to Petco Park for the opening game of their series. The Padres currently sit in a solid position with a record of 78-61, ranking 1st in MLB in team batting average and boasting the 7th best offense overall. Meanwhile, the Tigers have struggled this season, holding a 70-68 record, ranking 23rd in MLB for both overall offense and team batting average.

In their most recent games, the Padres narrowly defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3, while the Tigers secured a more comfortable 4-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox. These wins reflect the Padres' ongoing strong performance compared to the Tigers, who have been more inconsistent recently.

On the mound, Joe Musgrove is expected to start for the Padres. Although he has an average ERA of 4.44, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat lucky this season. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing around 2.3 earned runs and 4.8 hits, but there are concerns about his 1.1 walks per game, indicating potential trouble if he isn't sharp. Facing him will be Ty Madden, who has shown promise with a stellar 1.80 ERA in his only start this year, although projections indicate he might not sustain this level of performance, given his high expected metrics.

The Padres enter this matchup as heavy favorites, with betting lines reflecting this confidence. They are projected to score 4.88 runs, significantly outpacing the Tigers’ projected total of 3.94 runs. Given the stark contrast in offensive capabilities and Musgrove's experience as the #43 ranked starting pitcher in MLB (despite his struggles), the Padres seem poised to continue their winning ways against a Tigers lineup that may find it difficult to capitalize on their scoring opportunities.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jake Rogers has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.6-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (93.2 mph) has been significantly faster than than his seasonal rate (92.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Higashioka is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Detroit (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+12.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+13.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.88 vs San Diego Padres 4.83

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