Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 7/21/2025

The Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates will start a three-game interleague series on Monday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Paul Skenes will get the start for the Pirates in this game. The question is whether or not Skenes will get enough run support to get a rare win for the Pirates this year. Here, I attempt to answer that question with my Tigers vs Pirates prediction.

Our Tigers vs Pirates Pick

• Pick: Detroit Tigers moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★½
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
• Date & Time: Monday, July 21, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs Paul Skenes
• Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• Broadcast: SportsNet PT and FDSDET

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Jack Flaherty: Flaherty enters this game at 5-9 on the season with a 4.65 ERA. Flaherty will need to be at or near his best for the Tigers to get the win over Skenes and the Pirates in this contest.
• Paul Skenes: Paul Skenes has been great this season. He is 4-8 with a 2.01 ERA. But the lack of run support from the Pirates lineup has prevented Skenes from getting the wins someone with his stats might deserve.

Bullpen Usage

The Pirates have a slightly better bullpen ERA than the Tigers this season. That is a shock given that the Tigers have a much better record on the season. But if this game is close late, I urge bettors to remember that these bullpens are evenly matched.

Recent Team Streaks

• Pirates: Pittsburgh has lost three in a row and four of their last five games.
• Tigers: The Tigers are 1-4 in their last five games. They won their most recent game on Sunday Night Baseball against the Texas Rangers.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Tigers are 2-1 against the Pirates so far this season.
• The Tigers are 28-22 on the road this season. The Pirates are 26-24 at home.
• Detroit is the first team in MLB to reach 60 wins in the 2025 season.

Tigers vs Pirates Model Projection

Score Projection: Detroit 4 – Pittsburgh 3

Win Probability: Detroit 48%, Pittsburgh 52%

Final Thoughts

Paul Skenes is clearly the best pitcher on the mound in this game. But the lack of offensive support from the Pirates makes betting on Skenes a risky proposition. Instead, I am going to take this opportunity to bet the Tigers as a slight underdog on the road. The Tigers are better in most facets of the game and should be able to weather the storm that is Skenes early before striking late to grab a second straight victory.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.