Detroit Tigers VS Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Martin Perez - Pirates
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Tigers 1.5 -185, Pirates -1.5 160
• Money Line: Tigers 110, Pirates -130
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 46%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 45.6%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 54.4%

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

In an Interleague matchup on April 9, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Detroit Tigers at PNC Park. The Pirates, boasting a strong 9-2 record this season, will be the home team, while the Tigers, with a respectable 6-4 record, will be the away team.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez, while the Tigers are expected to start right-hander Casey Mize. Perez has had a solid start to the season, with a 1-0 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Perez is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. On the other hand, Mize has struggled with a 6.23 ERA, but his peripheral indicators, such as xFIP, suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Pirates have been off to a great start this season, ranking 6th in MLB in team offense. However, their team batting average is only 26th in the league, indicating that their underlying talent may be better than their actual performance. The Tigers, on the other hand, rank 25th in team offense, with a low team batting average of 27th in MLB.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Pirates have the 5th best bullpen in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Tigers rank 9th. This suggests that both teams have reliable relief pitchers to rely on.

Looking at the implied win probability, the Pirates have a slight advantage with a moneyline set at -130 and an implied win probability of 54%. The Tigers, with a moneyline set at +110, have an implied win probability of 46%.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Tigers have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs. However, THE BAT X projects both teams to score 0.00 runs on average in this game, which is a very low projection.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Casey Mize in the 25th percentile among all starters in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Parker Meadows is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 10th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

With a .228 wOBA in the last two weeks, Henry Davis has been struggling at the plate.

• Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.

Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+18.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+5.40 Units / 22% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers 4.42 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.59

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