Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on September 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Athletics currently hold a 61-80 record, while the Tigers sit a bit better at 71-70. This matchup marks the first in a series that could offer the Athletics a glimmer of hope as they look to build momentum in a disappointing year.

In terms of pitching, the Athletics project to start Mitch Spence, who has been a struggle this season with a Win/Loss record of 7-9 and an average ERA of 4.50. His underlying xERA of 3.90 suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, but facing the Tigers’ offense, which ranks 25th in the league, may provide him an opportunity to turn things around. Spence is also up against one of the league's best in Tarik Skubal, who boasts a remarkable 16-4 record and an elite ERA of 2.51. Skubal’s ability to generate strikeouts—30.3% this season—places him in a favorable position against an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts.

While the projections suggest the Athletics should struggle today, their bullpen ranks 10th overall, providing some hope for back-end support as the game unfolds. Meanwhile, Oakland’s offense has shown some power this season, ranking 4th in home runs, which could become a pivotal factor if they can capitalize on Skubal's occasional vulnerabilities.

With a Game Total sitting low at 7.0 runs, both teams face an uphill battle in terms of offensive production. The Athletics and their 39% implied win probability suggest they are substantial underdogs, but baseball is always full of surprises, and a standout performance could turn the tides in their favor.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal has tallied 18.7 outs per start this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.176) suggests that Spencer Torkelson has been lucky this year with his .218 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Detroit Tigers have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Jace Jung, Spencer Torkelson, Trey Sweeney, Dillon Dingler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (84.6% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Daz Cameron has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 9.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 59 games (+17.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+11.35 Units / 16% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.13 vs Oakland Athletics 3.27

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