Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/2/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Detroit Tigers at Target Field on July 2, 2024, both teams are looking to set the tone in this American League Central matchup. The Twins, sitting at a solid 47-37, are having a strong season, while the Tigers, with a 38-46 record, find themselves struggling.

The Twins have Simeon Woods Richard on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who, despite his #180 rank among MLB starters, has managed a respectable 3.41 ERA over his 13 starts. However, his 4.32 xFIP suggests he's been more fortunate than dominant, and his projections for today indicate potential struggles, especially considering his below-average strikeout and walk rates. Still, facing a Tigers offense that ranks 27th overall and struggles in both batting average and power, Woods Richard could find some relief.

On the other side, the Tigers are relying on the elite left-hander Tarik Skubal, the top pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Skubal boasts a stellar 2.32 ERA and a strong 9-3 record over 16 starts. While his 2.93 xFIP points to some luck, his projections today suggest he'll continue to perform well, particularly with his impressive strikeout numbers. Yet, he too faces a challenge with the Twins' offense, which ranks 10th overall and 5th in home runs.

When it comes to hitting, the Twins are seeing a hot streak from Byron Buxton, who has been on fire over the last week with a .421 average, 1.455 OPS, and three home runs in just five games. The Tigers' Andy Ibanez has also been impressive, hitting .462 with a 1.115 OPS in his last four games. However, Detroit’s overall offensive struggles could tilt the scales in Minnesota’s favor.

The Twins' bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, offers additional support, whereas Detroit's 12th-ranked bullpen is middle-of-the-pack. With the projected win probability favoring the Twins slightly, their potent offense and strong relief pitching might just give them the edge in this tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.1-mph increase from last year's 95-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Colt Keith has had some very poor luck this year. His .262 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .311.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Detroit Tigers batters collectively grade out 21st- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 26.8% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100 mph or greater.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Byron Buxton has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.45 vs Minnesota Twins 3.92

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