Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 4/21/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Louie Varland - Twins
• Run Line: Tigers 1.5 -205, Twins -1.5 175
• Money Line: Tigers -105, Twins -115
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 49%
• Minnesota Twins - 51%

Projected Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 45.28%
• Minnesota Twins - 54.72%

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

The Twins are currently having a terrible season with a record of 7-12, while the Tigers are performing above average with a record of 11-10. The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Louie Varland, who has had a rough start to the season with a Win/Loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 8.36. However, his 3.61 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Casey Mize, who has been an average pitcher this season with an ERA of 4.11. His 3.27 FIP indicates that he has been slightly unlucky and could improve in his future performances.

The Twins offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 28th best in MLB. However, they have shown some power, ranking 7th in team home runs. The Tigers offense has also struggled, ranking 25th in MLB. Both teams have low rankings in team batting average and stolen bases.

Looking at the recent performance of the teams, the Twins' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Trevor Larnach, while the Tigers' best hitter has been Kerry Carpenter. Larnach has recorded 4 games played, 1 home run, a batting average of .333, and an OPS of .891. Carpenter, on the other hand, has played 7 games, recorded 10 hits, 7 RBIs, 1 home run, a batting average of .357, and an OPS of 1.079.

Considering the pitching matchup, Varland's struggles and the Twins' low offensive rankings, the Tigers may have an advantage. Additionally, Casey Mize's strengths align with the Twins' weakness, as he is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout Twins offense.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The current moneyline for both teams is set at -110, suggesting an equal win probability for both teams.

Based on the projections and the overall performance of the teams, the Tigers have a slight edge in this game. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and both teams will be looking to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Detroit Tigers bats as a unit place 24th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when using their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Louie Varland will wring up 16.6 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Since the start of last season, Byron Buxton's 14.4% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 92nd percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 69 away games (+16.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has only hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 13 games (-6.85 Units / -51% ROI)

Tigers vs Twins Prediction: Tigers 3.93 - Twins 4.1

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