Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 4/20/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
• Run Line: Tigers 1.5 -185, Twins -1.5 160
• Money Line: Tigers 115, Twins -140
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 44%
• Minnesota Twins - 56%

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

The Minnesota Twins will face off against the Detroit Tigers on April 20, 2024, at Target Field. As the home team, the Twins will look to turn their season around, as they currently hold a disappointing 6-12 record. On the other hand, the Tigers have had a promising start with an 11-9 record.

Bailey Ober is projected to start for the Twins, while Reese Olson is projected to take the mound for the Tigers. Ober, a right-handed pitcher, is ranked as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his high ERA of 6.57 this season, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Olson, also a right-handed pitcher, is considered an average pitcher based on our Power Rankings.

In terms of pitching projections, Ober is expected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs, striking out 5.8 batters, and allowing 4.4 hits. However, his control has been an issue, with a projection of 1.3 walks. Olson, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, striking out 5.5 batters, and allowing 4.3 hits. His control has also been a concern, with a projection of 2.0 walks.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are favored with a -135 moneyline, implying a 55% win probability. The Tigers have a +115 moneyline, suggesting a 45% win probability. The game total is set at 8.0 runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Reese Olson will give up an average of 2.04 earned runs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Notching 2 home runs in the past week's worth of games, Kerry Carpenter has been on fire lately.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Bailey Ober in the 83rd percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

Alex Kirilloff's batting average skill is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tigers vs Twins Prediction: Tigers 3.29 - Twins 4.21

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