Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/30/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers roll into Angel Stadium for the fourth game of their series against the Los Angeles Angels on June 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in the lower tiers of the American League standings. The Angels, with a record of 35-46, are having a rough season, while the Tigers sit slightly better at 37-45, although they are still below average. Despite these struggles, betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams' moneylines set at -110, indicating an implied win probability of 50% for each.

Tyler Anderson, a lefty, will take the mound for the Angels. Anderson's stats this year are a mixed bag. His 2.63 ERA appears excellent, but a 5.28 xFIP indicates he's been quite lucky and might face regression. While his 7-7 record and 4.7 strikeouts per game suggest reliability, projections show he's likely to allow 3.1 earned runs and 5.7 hits today, both unfavorable markers. Nonetheless, Anderson's high-flyball rate could play to his advantage against a Tigers offense ranked 26th in home runs and 27th in batting average.

Casey Mize will be the starting pitcher for the Tigers. Sporting a 1-6 record with a 4.54 ERA, Mize has had his share of tough luck this season. His 3.92 xFIP suggests he's pitched better than his ERA indicates and could be due for some positive regression. Just like Anderson, Mize projects to allow 5.7 hits today, but he might fare slightly better in terms of earned runs, with an estimate of 2.8. The Angels' offense, ranked 16th overall, may give him a tougher challenge compared to what Anderson faces with the Tigers' lineup.

Recent form could be pivotal in this matchup. Willie Calhoun has been the Angels' hottest hitter over the last week, boasting a remarkable .417 batting average and 1.367 OPS. On the other side, Zach McKinstry has been Detroit's standout, hitting .364 with a 1.182 OPS.

The Tigers' bullpen, ranked 10th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, contrasts starkly with the Angels' bullpen, which sits at the bottom, ranked 30th. This discrepancy could be a significant edge for Detroit, especially in a close game where every pitch counts.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize has tallied 14.7 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Wenceel Perez is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Riley Greene is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.7% rate (82nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed bats in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Zach Neto has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 78.7-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak, Miguel Sano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 48 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.97 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.69

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