Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 6/29/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers face off on June 29, 2024, in the third game of their series at Angel Stadium. The Angels, who have struggled this season with a 35-46 record, managed to secure a 5-2 victory over the Tigers on June 28, 2024. Despite their win, the Angels remain mired in a challenging season. The Tigers, with a slightly better but still below-average 37-45 record, look to bounce back after their recent loss.

On the mound, the Angels will start Griffin Canning, who has had a tough season with a 3-8 record and a 4.72 ERA. His 5.23 FIP suggests he has been fortunate thus far and may be due for regression. However, Canning's last start on June 24, 2024, was impressive, as he pitched seven innings, allowing just one earned run with five strikeouts. Canning's high flyball rate could be advantageous against a Tigers lineup that ranks 26th in home runs and 27th in batting average.

The Tigers counter with Reese Olson, who has also faced his share of struggles, evident in his 2-8 record. However, Olson's 3.35 ERA indicates he has been more effective than his win-loss record suggests. In his last outing on June 23, 2024, Olson pitched six solid innings, giving up two earned runs with three strikeouts and no walks. Olson's above-average performance this season is bolstered by his #66 ranking among starting pitchers, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Offensively, the Angels have an edge, boasting the 17th-best offense in MLB, while the Tigers languish at 27th. Taylor Ward has been a bright spot for the Angels, contributing 41 RBIs and 14 home runs this season. Over the last week, Ward has continued his strong performance, hitting .318 with a 1.102 OPS. The Tigers' Riley Greene has been their standout hitter, with 15 home runs and a .850 OPS this season, but the team as a whole has struggled to generate offense.

Betting markets project a close game, with the Tigers slightly favored at -125, implying a 53% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely with these odds, giving the Tigers a 51% chance of victory. With both teams looking to improve their standings, this matchup promises to be an intriguing contest.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Zach McKinstry has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Detroit Tigers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Placing in the 11th percentile, Griffin Canning has compiled a 16.5% K% this year.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

When it comes to his batting average, Jo Adell has had bad variance on his side this year. His .183 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 away games (+10.10 Units / 54% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.20 Units / 59% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.66 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.33

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