Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 6/27/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Davis Daniel - Angels

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers clash on June 27, 2024, at Angel Stadium for the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels at 33-46 and the Tigers slightly better at 37-43. This American League matchup features two right-handers on the mound: Davis Daniel for the Angels and Jack Flaherty for the Tigers.

Davis Daniel has had a tough season, ranking 174th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced statistics. His projections for this game are bleak: averaging 4.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, 4.8 hits, and 1.3 walks, while striking out just 4.3 batters. In his last start on June 22, Daniel managed four innings, giving up three earned runs and five walks, which underscores his inconsistency.

On the other side, Jack Flaherty has been a bright spot for Detroit, ranking 42nd among MLB starting pitchers. Flaherty boasts a solid 3.01 ERA, though his 2.17 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might perform even better moving forward. He's projected to go 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out seven batters on average. His last start on June 21 saw him pitch six strong innings, giving up just one earned run and striking out eight.

Offensively, the Angels rank 17th in MLB, a middling performance that's echoed in their rankings for batting average (19th) and home runs (14th). They do shine in stolen bases, ranking 10th. Taylor Ward has been their standout hitter, especially in the last week where he posted a .389 batting average and a 1.365 OPS.

The Tigers' offense, however, has struggled mightily, ranking 27th overall. Their batting average is 23rd, home runs 25th, and stolen bases 28th. Riley Greene has been their best hitter, but Detroit's offense needs more consistency to compete effectively.

The Angels bullpen is dead last in MLB, which could be a significant factor late in the game, especially against a Tigers bullpen ranked 11th. While the Angels are betting underdogs with a moneyline of +140, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 47% chance of winning, suggesting there might be value in betting on the Angels to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Compared to the average pitcher, Jack Flaherty has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.3 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Rogers in the 8th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Luis Rengifo will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Jack Flaherty in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.80 Units / 71% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.50 Units / 41% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.71 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.14

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