Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Picks 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Detroit Tigers on September 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of competitive seasons, with the Royals holding an 82-70 record and the Tigers at 79-73. Although neither team is in contention for the division title, they remain close in the standings, making each game crucial in the chase for a Wild Card spot.

In their last matchup, the Tigers defeated the Royals 3-1 in 10 innings, which was the third consecutive win for Detroit. However, it’s worth noting that the Royals' Alec Marsh is projected to start today. Marsh has had a challenging season, with a Win/Loss record of 8-8 and an average ERA of 4.52. The projections indicate that he may struggle again, as he is expected to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs. Against him, the Tigers will send out Tarik Skubal, who has been nothing short of elite this season, boasting a 16-4 record and an impressive 2.50 ERA. Skubal's ability to strike out batters (30.2 K% this year) could be a deciding factor, especially against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd lowest in strikeouts.

The Royals' offense has shown some strength, ranking 7th in batting average, but their performance has been inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Tigers are struggling, sitting at 24th in offensive rankings across categories, including batting average and home runs. This disparity gives the Royals a chance to capitalize on Skubal’s potential weaknesses, as he faces a low-walk and low-strikeout offense.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the matchup is expected to be tightly contested. The Royals are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +125, which may offer a good opportunity for bettors eyeing an upset against the favored Tigers at -150.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Generating 18.6 outs per outing this year on average, Tarik Skubal ranks in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Parker Meadows is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Zach McKinstry hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Alec Marsh will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Freddy Fermin has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 96.8-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Collectively, Kansas City Royals batters have struggled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 2nd-worst in baseball.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 63 games at home (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 72 games (+17.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.15 vs Kansas City Royals 3.81

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