Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/20/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In a matchup scheduled for May 20, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will be hosting the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. This game holds significance as it is an American League Central matchup, pitting the home team Royals against the away team Tigers.

The projected starting pitcher for the Royals is Michael Wacha, a right-handed pitcher. Wacha has started 9 games this year and holds a Win/Loss record of 3-4. Although his ERA stands at 4.71, his 3.66 xERA and 3.81 FIP indicate that he has been somewhat unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Reese Olson is projected to start for the Tigers. Olson, also a right-handed pitcher, has started 8 games this year and has yet to secure a win. However, his excellent ERA of 2.09 suggests that he has been performing well. It is worth noting that his 3.75 xFIP is higher than his ERA, indicating that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

In terms of offensive capabilities, the Royals rank 17th in MLB, while the Tigers rank 22nd. The Royals have been strong in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league. However, both teams struggle in the home run department, with the Royals ranking 26th and the Tigers ranking 27th.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are favored to win with a higher implied win probability of 51% compared to the Tigers' 49%. The Royals also have a higher implied team total of 4.30 runs, while the Tigers have an average implied team total of 4.20 runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson has used his change-up 8.4% more often this year (23.6%) than he did last season (15.2%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #24 club in the league since the start of last season by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph increase from last season's 91.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

This year, there has been a decline in Maikel Garcia's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.19 ft/sec last year to 27.68 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's matchup, Michael Massey is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.3% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 28 games (+5.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.88 vs Kansas City Royals 4.82

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.