Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/14/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will host the Detroit Tigers at Minute Maid Park on June 14, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. Both teams are experiencing different trajectories this season, with the Astros sporting a 31-38 record and struggling, while the Tigers are holding a slightly better 33-35 record, making for an average season.

On the mound, the Astros will start Hunter Brown, who has had a challenging season with a 2-5 record and a 5.58 ERA. Interestingly, his 3.71 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Brown's projections for this game include 5.6 innings pitched, 2.2 earned runs, 5.9 strikeouts, 4.9 hits, and 1.7 walks.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with their ace, Tarik Skubal. Skubal boasts an impressive 8-1 record and a stellar 1.92 ERA, making him the top-ranked starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. However, his 2.58 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit fortunate and could see some regression. Skubal projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allow 2.1 earned runs, strike out 5.7 batters, give up 4.6 hits, and walk 1.3 batters.

The Astros' offense is among the best in the league, ranking 6th overall, 2nd in batting average, and 4th in home runs. This potent lineup will be tested against Skubal's elite pitching. Yordan Alvarez has been leading the charge for Houston, hitting .375 with a 1.339 OPS over the last week.

Conversely, the Tigers' offense has struggled, ranking 24th overall in MLB. Justyn-Henry Malloy has been a bright spot for Detroit recently, with a .988 OPS over the past seven games.

Both bullpens are fairly average, with Houston ranked 11th and Detroit 12th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game is projected to be closely contested, with the betting markets giving both teams an implied win probability of 50%. Given the low Game Total of 7.5 runs, expect the pitchers to be in the spotlight.

Despite Skubal's dominance this season, the Astros' strong offense could tilt the balance in their favor, especially if Brown can outperform his season averages as projected. This game is set to be a compelling start to the series, with both teams looking to gain an edge.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's 96-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1-mph jump from last year's 95-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Zach McKinstry has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Generating 14.1 outs per start this year on average, Hunter Brown places him the 10th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In terms of his batting average, Jose Abreu has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .217 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+13.75 Units / 50% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.89 vs Houston Astros 4.04

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