Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Betting Pick & Preview – 6/16/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Undecided - Astros

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are set to host the Detroit Tigers at Minute Maid Park on June 16, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Astros, currently holding a 32-39 record, are having a below-average season and are coming off a lopsided 13-5 loss to these same Tigers on June 15. With the Tigers' 34-36 record, they are performing at an average level this season.

The Astros have not yet decided on a starting pitcher for this game, as Justin Verlander was scratched from this slot in their rotation. Who ends up getting the start for the Astros could have a huge impact on who comes out on top of this game.

Opposing him will be Kenta Maeda for the Tigers. Maeda's season has been below average, with a 5.89 ERA and a 2-2 Win/Loss record over 10 starts. Despite his struggles, his xFIP of 4.84 suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for better performance. Maeda projects to match Lauer with 5.2 innings pitched, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 4.4 batters on average.

Offensively, the Astros have been strong, ranking 6th in MLB overall. They lead the league in team batting average and are 4th in team home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been their standout hitter, boasting a .287 batting average and 14 home runs. Over the last week, Jose Altuve has been particularly hot, hitting .375 with a .983 OPS.

On the other side, the Tigers' offense ranks 24th in MLB. Riley Greene has been a bright spot, hitting .836 OPS with 14 home runs this season. He’s been on fire over the last week, hitting .407 with a 1.337 OPS.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Astros a slight edge with a 53% win probability, aligning closely with betting markets that set their moneyline at -135. This is projected to be a close game, with both teams expected to score around 4.6 runs. Given the Astros' superior offensive firepower and Maeda's flyball tendencies, Houston may have the edge in this contest.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Because flyball batters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Kenta Maeda and his 38.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this matchup matching up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Riley Greene may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Detroit Tigers bats jointly rank 24th- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Extreme groundball batters like Victor Caratini generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kenta Maeda.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+10.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+16.50 Units / 103% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.58 vs Houston Astros 4.64

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.