Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/22/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are set to clash on July 22, 2024, at Progressive Field in a pivotal American League Central matchup. The Guardians, boasting a strong season with a 59-39 record, currently sit near the top of the division standings. Meanwhile, the Tigers, at 49-51, are fighting to stay relevant, delivering an average performance this year. This game marks the first in a new series between these rivals.

The starting pitching matchups feature a stark contrast in talent and performance. The Guardians' Carlos Carrasco, a right-hander, has struggled this season with a 5.02 ERA across 17 starts, reflected in his poor advanced-stat Power Ranking of 311th out of approximately 350 pitchers. Despite his subpar results, his 4.22 xFIP suggests some underlying bad luck, hinting at potential improvement. Carrasco's projected to pitch 4.6 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, while striking out 3.7 batters and allowing 5.0 hits and 1.3 walks on average—indicators that don't inspire much confidence.

In stark contrast, the Tigers will send out Tarik Skubal, the league's top-ranked starter per advanced-stat Power Rankings. Skubal has been dominant with a 2.41 ERA, a 10-3 record in 19 starts, and a 30.8% strikeout rate, making him elite. The left-hander projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing just 2.0 earned runs with 6.2 strikeouts, 4.8 hits, and 1.2 walks on average.

Offensively, the Guardians hold an edge. Ranked 12th in MLB for overall offense by underlying talent, they fare better than the Tigers, who come in at a dismal 25th. Cleveland's lineup, which ranks 10th in home runs and 9th in stolen bases, is more potent than Detroit's poor rankings of 21st and 26th in those respective categories.

Despite the Guardians' powerful offense and elite bullpen—the top-ranked in MLB—THE BAT X (the leading MLB projection system) projects the Tigers to win, with a win probability of 54%. The betting markets reflect a tight contest, with Detroit favored at -125 and Cleveland at +105, suggesting a competitive game.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal has gone to his sinker 8.6% more often this year (20.8%) than he did last season (12.2%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Javier Baez is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Zach McKinstry hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco's 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.1-mph drop off from last year's 92-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 18.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 40 games at home (+12.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+11.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.31 vs Cleveland Guardians 3.61

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.