Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 7/4/2025

The Detroit Tigers (54‑34) and the Cleveland Guardians (40‑45) will face off on July 4th at Progressive Field. The Tigers have a stranglehold on the AL Central so far this year and will look to extend their advantage against a struggling Cleveland team. To find out if I think that will happen, continue reading to get my Tigers vs Guardians prediction for Independence Day.

Our Tigers vs Guardians Pick

Pick: Detroit Tigers moneyline (−115)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
• Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Tigers’ Reese Olson (4‑3, 2.96 ERA) vs Guardians’ Slade Cecconi (3‑3, 3.64 ERA)
• Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
• Broadcast: CLEG and FDSDET

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Reese Olson has been solid this season for the Tigers. He has a 4-3 record and a 2.96 ERA. He owes most of that success to his ability to strike out opposing hitters, as he averages over a strikeout per inning on the season. Cleveland will give the start to Slade Cecconi in this game. Cecconi has a 3.64 ERA and has recorded the win in two of his last three starts. I think Cleveland has a chance in this game if Cecconi keeps pitching the way he has over the last month.

Bullpen usage

Both of these teams are in the middle of the pack in terms of bullpen strength. The Tigers have a bullpen ERA of 3.82, while the Guardians’ bullpen comes in a 3.88 on the season.

Recent team streaks

Both teams come into this game on losing streaks. The Tigers have dropped two straight games to the Washington Nationals entering this series opener. But the Guardians have struggled more than that, losing seven games in a row.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Detroit is 6‑4 in its last 10 games on the moneyline.
• Cleveland is 2-8 in its last 10 games and has dropped seven straight.
• Guardians are 20-20 at home, the Tigers are 24-20 on the road.
• Cleveland took three of the four games in the first series between these teams this season.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Model Projection

Score Projection: Tigers 5 – Guardians 4

Win Probability: Tigers 52%, Guardians 48%

Final Thoughts

I am giving the upper hand to the Detroit Tigers in this series-opening game. While Cleveland took three of four from the Tigers earlier this season, the Guardians were playing much better baseball then. Here, I expect the long losing streak of the Guardians to continue, thanks in large part to the starting pitching edge for Detroit with Olson on the bump tonight.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.