Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/6/2025

On Sunday, July 6, the Detroit Tigers will take on the Cleveland Guardians in an AL Central matchup from Progressive Field in Cleveland. If you are a fan of close pitching duels, this has been the series for you so far, with the teams combining to score just four runs in two games. Will that trend continue today? Continue reading for my Tigers vs Guardians prediction to find out.

Our Tigers vs Guardians Pick

• Pick: Tigers -1.5
• Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
• Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 1:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (10‑2, 2.15 ERA) vs Gavin Williams (5‑4, 3.86 ERA)
• Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Broadcast: CLEG and FDSDET

Key Storylines

• Pitching form: Skubal is locked in. He’s 10‑2 with a 2.15 ERA, averaging 11.4 K/9, and holding opponents to a .196 BA. Gavin Williams has been serviceable, with a 3.86 ERA. But he has allowed 4+ ER twice in his last two starts and is at a huge disadvantage against a very talented pitcher in Skubal.
• Bullpen usage: Both bullpens have been lights out in this series, as there have only been four total runs scored in two games. Whichever bullpen does the better job today could end up giving their team the edge they need to win this game.
• Recent team streaks: The Tigers have won two straight games and have a commanding lead in the AL Central standings. The Guardians have dropped nine straight.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Detroit is tied with the LA Dodgers for the best record in baseball this season.
• The Tigers are 40-19 as favorites in 2025.
• The season series between these teams is tied 3-3 for the year.

Tigers vs Guardians Model Projection

Score Projection: Detroit 5 – Cleveland 2

Win Probability: Detroit 64%, Cleveland 36%

Final Thoughts

The Tigers should have no problem getting the job done in this game and completing a three-game sweep of the Guardians. The Guardians’ long streak of losses means mounting pressure, while they may not have the talent at the plate to relieve any of that pressure against Tarik Skubal. Taking the Tigers to cover the -1.5 looks sharp. My model and betting trends align, forecasting a straightforward win for Detroit. That makes Detroit -1.5 our top play today.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.