Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/6/2025
On Sunday, July 6, the Detroit Tigers will take on the Cleveland Guardians in an AL Central matchup from Progressive Field in Cleveland. If you are a fan of close pitching duels, this has been the series for you so far, with the teams combining to score just four runs in two games. Will that trend continue today? Continue reading for my Tigers vs Guardians prediction to find out.
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (10‑2, 2.15 ERA) vs Gavin Williams (5‑4, 3.86 ERA)
Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Broadcast: CLEG and FDSDET
Key Storylines
Pitching form: Skubal is locked in. He’s 10‑2 with a 2.15 ERA, averaging 11.4 K/9, and holding opponents to a .196 BA. Gavin Williams has been serviceable, with a 3.86 ERA. But he has allowed 4+ ER twice in his last two starts and is at a huge disadvantage against a very talented pitcher in Skubal.
Bullpen usage: Both bullpens have been lights out in this series, as there have only been four total runs scored in two games. Whichever bullpen does the better job today could end up giving their team the edge they need to win this game.
Recent team streaks: The Tigers have won two straight games and have a commanding lead in the AL Central standings. The Guardians have dropped nine straight.
Best Player Props
Player
Prop
Odds
Tarik Skubal
Over 7.5 strikeouts
-135
Betting Trends & H2H
Detroit is tied with the LA Dodgers for the best record in baseball this season.
The Tigers are 40-19 as favorites in 2025.
The season series between these teams is tied 3-3 for the year.
Tigers vs Guardians Model Projection
Score Projection: Detroit 5 – Cleveland 2
Win Probability: Detroit 64%, Cleveland 36%
Final Thoughts
The Tigers should have no problem getting the job done in this game and completing a three-game sweep of the Guardians. The Guardians’ long streak of losses means mounting pressure, while they may not have the talent at the plate to relieve any of that pressure against Tarik Skubal. Taking the Tigers to cover the -1.5 looks sharp. My model and betting trends align, forecasting a straightforward win for Detroit. That makes Detroit -1.5 our top play today.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
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Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
Home›MLB Picks›Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/6/2025
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