Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/5/2025

The Detroit Tigers are riding high after a 2–1 win over the Cleveland Guardians on July 4, powered by two solo homers and strong bullpen work. Game 2 of the series gives Detroit another chance to extend its lead atop the AL Central. I break down this division matchup and determine if I think the Tigers will get the job done again with my Tigers vs Guardians prediction for tonight.

Our Tigers vs Guardians Pick

• Pick: Tigers moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
• Date & Time: Saturday, July 5, 2025, 7:15 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Casey Mize (DET) vs Logan Allen (CLE)
• Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Broadcast: FOX

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

Casey Mize is enjoying an excellent 2025 campaign, with an 8–2 record and a 2.86 ERA. He’s been so valuable as a reliable arm behind the great Tarik Skubal for the top team in the American League. Cleveland’s Logan Allen is 5–6 with a 4.27 ERA. Allen surrendered three runs in six innings his last time out.

Bullpen Usage

Detroit’s bullpen was pivotal in securing yesterday’s win, with three relievers combining for 4.2 innings of shutout ball, and closer Will Vest recording his 14th save. Cleveland’s bullpen was strong as well, throwing three scoreless innings on Friday.

Recent Team Streaks

• In their last five games, the Guardians are 0–5 overall while the Tigers are 3-2.
• Cleveland has lost eight straight games overall.
• Detroit is 55–34 overall and they have the best record in the American League.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Tigers have won 67.2% of their games as favorites.
• Detroit has gone over the total in 53.5% of their games for the year.
• Cleveland is 23-30 as an underdog this year.
• Cleveland leads the season series 3-2 despite losing to the Tigers yesterday.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Model Projection

Score Projection: Detroit 5 – Cleveland 3

Win Probability: Detroit 64%, Cleveland 36%

Final Thoughts

Detroit enters tonight’s game with the American League’s best record. Casey Mize’s elite form and a deep bullpen should help them to get yet another win on the road today. Cleveland’s losing streak will go to nine games in a row, while I also expect Mize to hit the over on his strikeout prop for those looking to assemble a Same Game Parlay.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.