Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 25, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The White Sox, with a record of 31-99, are struggling immensely, ranking 30th in MLB offensively. In contrast, the Tigers sit at 64-66, having recently secured a dominant 13-4 victory over the White Sox in their last matchup on August 24, 2024.

The pitching matchup features Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox, who has had a challenging season with a 2-7 record and a lackluster 4.26 ERA. Cannon's recent performance was particularly rough, as he allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits in his last start. His projections indicate he may struggle again today, with expectations to allow 3.0 earned runs over about 5.1 innings.

On the other side, the Tigers will send Beau Brieske to the mound. Despite a 2-3 record, Brieske's underlying metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season, with a 3.58 SIERA indicating better days ahead. His last outing was effective, going 2 innings without allowing any earned runs, which bodes well for his performance today.

While the White Sox's best hitter, Andrew Vaughn, has shown flashes of talent, Luis Robert has been the standout over the past week, boasting a .360 batting average. However, the projections indicate that the Tigers are favored to score significantly more runs than the White Sox today. The leading MLB projection system suggests the Tigers could put up 5.39 runs, while the White Sox are expected to manage just 4.07 runs.

Given the recent form of both teams and the pitching matchup, the Tigers enter this game as the favorites, looking to build on their recent success against a struggling White Sox squad.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Spencer Torkelson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 94-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Matt Vierling has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon has a mean projection of 3.03 earned runs in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.330) provides evidence that Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance this year with his .240 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Chicago White Sox have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+6.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 41 games (+16.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+27.40 Units / 196% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.48 vs Chicago White Sox 4.82

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