Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves at a crossroads, each sitting with a record of 61-64. This interleague matchup at Wrigley Field represents the first game in a series between these two clubs, both of whom are having average seasons. The Cubs are currently projected to start right-handed pitcher Javier Assad, who boasts a solid ERA of 3.19 but ranks as the 195th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. In contrast, the Tigers will send out Beau Brieske, an average pitcher with an ERA of 4.43.

In their last game on August 18, the Cubs were unable to secure a victory against the Toronto Blue Jays, losing 1-0. Meanwhile, the Tigers had a more favorable outcome, winning 3-2 against the New York Yankees. This recent loss for the Cubs, combined with the Tigers' win, adds a layer of intrigue to this matchup.

Despite the Cubs' struggles, the projections indicate a more favorable outlook for them in this game. They are favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting a 60% implied win probability. This comes as no surprise given their offensive capabilities, ranking 21st in MLB, while the Tigers are not far behind at 28th. The Cubs' best hitter, Ian Happ, continues to be a bright spot, having recorded 70 runs and 22 home runs this season.

The Cubs are projected to score around 3.94 runs today, which is lower than their average but still places them in a competitive position against the Tigers, who are expected to score about 3.99 runs. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this could be a tightly contested affair, and the Cubs will look to capitalize on their status as favorites to gain momentum in this series.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Parker Meadows is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's matchup, Matt Vierling is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.2% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad has gone to his sinker 5.9% more often this season (35.7%) than he did last year (29.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Nico Hoerner's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 85.7-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 82.3-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 103 games (+8.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 16 away games (+14.45 Units / 60% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+3.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.98 vs Chicago Cubs 4.31

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.