Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Faedo - Tigers
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs host the Detroit Tigers at Wrigley Field on August 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar standings with a record of 62-65, marking an average season for both. The Cubs' recent struggles were evident in their last outing, where they fell to the Tigers by a score of 8-2. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they look to gain momentum in a tightly contested series.

Starting for the Cubs is Justin Steele, who ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing elite talent with a solid ERA of 3.10. However, his xFIP of 3.73 suggests that he may have been somewhat lucky so far this season. Steele projects to pitch 5.9 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs, which is encouraging for the Cubs' chances. In contrast, the Tigers will counter with Alex Faedo, who has been struggling, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. Faedo's high walk rate (11.4 BB%) might give the Cubs' offense, known for drawing walks, an opportunity to capitalize and score runs.

While the Cubs’ offense has been ranked 21st in MLB this season, their recent projections indicate a potential uptick in performance. The projections suggest the Cubs could score around 4.71 runs, which aligns well with their high implied team total of 4.37 runs for this game. With the Cubs favored at a moneyline of -205, it appears they are expected to bounce back from their recent defeat and leverage their home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Despite posting a .226 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Javier Baez has had bad variance on his side given the .069 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Today, Matt Vierling is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 16th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Isaac Paredes has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 113 games (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 36 games (+13.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 92% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.67 vs Chicago Cubs 4.8

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