Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ty Madden - Tigers
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers prepare for their matchup on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of intriguing seasons. The Orioles, boasting an 86-69 record, are having a strong season and are in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Tigers, with an 81-74 record, are having an above-average season, fighting for a postseason spot. In their last encounter on September 21, the Tigers edged out the Orioles with a 6-4 victory, setting the stage for an exciting series finale at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The Orioles will send Albert Suarez to the mound, a right-hander with a solid 3.60 ERA this season. However, his 4.55 xFIP suggests some potential regression, as he may have been a bit lucky. Despite being ranked as the #258 best starting pitcher in MLB, Suarez has managed an 8-6 record over 22 starts. His recent outings have been inconsistent, including a short three-inning stint on September 17 where he allowed four earned runs.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with Ty Madden, another right-hander. Madden has shown flashes of brilliance with a 2.55 ERA, but his 4.80 xFIP indicates he might also be due for a downturn. He's started just four games this season, posting a 1-1 record. His last outing on September 14 saw him pitch four innings, allowing one earned run.

Offensively, the Orioles hold a clear advantage, ranking as the 6th best offense in MLB, with standout performances in home runs (2nd) and batting average (9th). Gunnar Henderson has been a key contributor, with 37 home runs and a .902 OPS. The Tigers, meanwhile, rank 24th in both team batting average and home runs, with Riley Greene leading their lineup.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a 59% chance of victory, slightly above their implied win probability of 55%. With Baltimore's potent offense and home-field advantage, they are positioned as favorites in this American League matchup.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ty Madden is projected to throw 82 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Parker Meadows is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Gunnar Henderson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 97.5-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Rating 4th-steepest in Major League Baseball this year, Baltimore Orioles hitters as a group have posted a 14.5° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+15.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 75 games (+15.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Hits Over in his last 17 away games (+18.85 Units / 56% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.33 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.98

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