Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 6/12/2025

On June 12, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. The Orioles are struggling this season with a record of 27-39, while the Tigers are enjoying a stellar year at 44-25. Baltimore's recent form has been less than inspiring, but they did get a win yesterday over Detroit and will look for another one here.

The pitching matchup features Dean Kremer for the Orioles and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers. Kremer, ranked 166th among MLB starting pitchers, has a Win/Loss record of 5-6 and an ERA of 4.98, indicating he has been below average this season. However, his expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 4.36 suggests he could be due for better luck. Kremer’s low strikeout rate of 16.8% may work in his favor against a Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts.

On the other hand, Skubal is enjoying a breakout season, sitting atop the Power Rankings as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB with a remarkable 2.16 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 6-2. His projections indicate he could limit the Orioles to just 1.9 earned runs and strike out 7.4 batters on average.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 8th in MLB, while the Orioles struggle at 21st. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting the potential for a lower-scoring affair given the strengths of Skubal and the Tigers' bullpen, ranked 2nd in the league.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Parker Meadows is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#2-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's four-seam fastball percentage has fallen by 7.1% from last year to this one (32.1% to 25%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games (+9.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+11.58 Units / 15% ROI)
• Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 away games (+6.20 Units / 155% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.08, Baltimore Orioles 3.58

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

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