Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 6/10/2025

On June 10, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what marks the beginning of a three-game series. The Tigers come into this matchup riding high with a solid 43-24 record, while the Orioles are struggling at 26-38, reflecting a season fraught with challenges.

In their last game, the Tigers won decisively, adding to their impressive season and solidifying their position as a competitive force in the American League. On the mound for the Orioles is Cade Povich, who has had a rough season, posting a 1-4 record with a 5.11 ERA. Although he ranks as the 142nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he might be due for positive regression. Povich is projected to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which is below average, but his tendency to allow 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks per outing raises concerns.

The Tigers will counter with Sawyer Gipson-Long, who has struggled in his limited appearances, sporting a 7.36 ERA in just one start this season. His projections indicate he will pitch around 4.4 innings, giving up an average of 2.9 earned runs and 5.0 hits. While both pitchers have shown signs of being unlucky, Gipson-Long's performance thus far has been particularly troubling.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 8th in MLB, showcasing a balanced attack with a solid batting average and home run production. In contrast, the Orioles' offense is ranked 20th, making it difficult for them to generate consistent scoring opportunities. The projections indicate a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, suggesting a potential for offensive fireworks.

With the Orioles' bullpen ranked 6th and the Tigers' at 2nd, it will be crucial for both starters to keep the game competitive early. Given the current odds and the Orioles' implied team total of 4.61 runs, they may have a slight edge if Povich can find a way to limit damage and leverage home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Javier Baez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Povich.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's matchup, Jackson Holliday is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.9% rate (90th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 67 games (+13.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+7.40 Units / 148% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.61, Baltimore Orioles 5.37

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long - Tigers
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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