Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/18/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off against the Detroit Tigers on May 18, 2024, at Chase Field. As the home team, the Diamondbacks will look to improve their record of 21-24 this season, which is below average. On the other hand, the Tigers hold a record of 22-22, indicating an average season for them.

Zac Gallen is projected to start as the pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is a right-handed pitcher who has performed exceptionally well this season with a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an ERA of 2.86. However, his 3.43 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance going forward.

The Tigers will counter with Jack Flaherty, another right-handed pitcher. Flaherty has started 8 games this year and holds a Win/Loss record of 0-3 with an ERA of 3.88. His 2.11 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could see an improvement in his performance.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank as the 8th best team in MLB, while the Tigers rank 26th. The Diamondbacks have a strong stolen base game, ranking 3rd in the league, but both teams struggle with their batting average and home run production.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gallen is ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, while Flaherty is ranked 51st. This suggests that Gallen has the upper hand in terms of pitching performance.

The game total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Diamondbacks are considered the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Tigers are the underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

Overall, this game presents an opportunity for the Diamondbacks to capitalize on their offensive strength and Gallen's solid pitching performance. However, Flaherty's high-strikeout ability could pose a challenge for the Diamondbacks' low-strikeout offense. With the odds in their favor, the Diamondbacks have an average implied team total of 4.08 runs, while the Tigers have a lower implied team total of 3.42 runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 5.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

As it relates to his batting average, Javier Baez has experienced some negative variance this year. His .185 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .281.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Detroit Tigers have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's slider usage has spiked by 7.3% from last season to this one (3.4% to 10.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jake McCarthy's 2.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) grades out in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 6.4% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks grades them out as the #28 group of hitters in MLB since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 28 games (+4.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+8.95 Units / 51% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.14 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.85

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