Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Preview – 5/19/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Manning - Tigers
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On May 19, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Detroit Tigers at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks will be the home team, while the Tigers will be the away team. This interleague matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Diamondbacks have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 21-25. Their offense ranks as the 12th best in MLB, with an average team batting average of .250. However, their power numbers have been lacking, as they rank 19th in team home runs. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have been successful in stealing bases, ranking 3rd in the league in that category.

The Tigers, with a record of 23-22, have had an average season thus far. Their offense has struggled, ranking 24th in MLB with a team batting average of .220. Similar to the Diamondbacks, the Tigers have struggled with power, ranking 27th in team home runs. Additionally, their stolen base game has been lacking, ranking 28th in the league.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who has a record of 2-2 this year. Montgomery has a 4.76 ERA, which is below average, but his 4.25 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs on average.

The Tigers will counter with right-handed pitcher Matt Manning, who has a record of 0-1 this season. Manning has a 4.37 ERA, which is average, but his 3.83 xERA indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings. Manning is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs on average.

Looking at the betting odds, the Diamondbacks are considered the favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Tigers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

Overall, this game features two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. The Diamondbacks have a slightly stronger offense but will need a solid performance from Montgomery to secure the win. The Tigers will rely on Manning to keep the Diamondbacks' offense in check. With the home-field advantage and a higher win probability, the Diamondbacks have a slight edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.5° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (#7 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jordan Montgomery will ring up an average of 16.6 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jake McCarthy's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 29.96 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.19 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.05 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+9.70 Units / 88% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.68 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.97

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.