Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 7/21/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On July 21, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Detroit Tigers at Rogers Centre for the third game in their series. The Blue Jays, who have had a rough season with a 44-54 record, are looking to bounce back against a mid-tier Tigers team sitting at 49-50. Despite their struggles, Toronto holds a slight edge in today's matchup, being the betting favorite with a current moneyline of -150, translating to an implied win probability of 58%.

The Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman to the mound. Ranked as the #62 starting pitcher in MLB, Gausman has been an above-average performer despite a 7-8 record and 4.50 ERA. Notably, his 3.71 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky this season, suggesting better performances could be on the horizon. Gausman is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.6 batters – solid numbers given his situation.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with Keider Montero, who has struggled significantly this year. Entering with a 1-2 record and a 5.47 ERA, Montero hasn’t found his stride. His 4.36 xFIP suggests he’s also been a bit unlucky, but his projections for today are less promising: 4.6 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and only 3.8 strikeouts.

Offensively, neither team has been particularly potent. The Blue Jays rank 22nd in MLB in overall offensive talent, with particularly dismal figures in home runs (26th) and stolen bases (28th). The Tigers, not faring much better, rank 25th overall and 21st in team home runs. Both teams will likely find offense hard to come by in this contest.

From a bullpen perspective, Detroit holds a slight edge. The Tigers rank 16th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Blue Jays lag behind at 21st. These bullpens could play a decisive role in what’s projected to be a tight, low-scoring game with a game total of 8.0 runs.

With the Blue Jays aiming to salvage something from a disappointing season, today's game offers an intriguing matchup of pitching luck and offensive struggles. Toronto's favored status might just hinge on Gausman's ability to outduel Montero and a bullpen that needs to hold firm.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

As it relates to his batting average, Zach McKinstry has experienced some negative variance this year. His .189 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Detroit's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 7.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.85 Units / 63% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.88 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.98

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