Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 7/19/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers are set to face off on July 19, 2024, at Rogers Centre in an American League matchup. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Blue Jays sitting at 44-52 and the Tigers at 47-50. This is the first game in the series between these two teams, and the Blue Jays will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing stretch.

On the mound for the Blue Jays will be Chris Bassitt, who holds an 8-7 record with a 3.52 ERA this season. While Bassitt's ERA is solid, his 4.24 xFIP suggests he has been a bit fortunate, and his performance may regress. Nevertheless, Bassitt is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, and giving up 5.5 hits and 1.6 walks, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Tigers. Flaherty has been impressive this season with a 6-5 record and a stellar 3.13 ERA. Interestingly, his 2.50 xFIP indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky and might perform even better moving forward. Flaherty is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 5.9 batters, and surrendering 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season. The Blue Jays rank 21st in offense, 20th in team batting average, and 26th in home runs. The Tigers aren't much better, ranking 24th in offense and batting average, and 21st in home runs. With both teams' offenses underperforming, this game could hinge on the performances of the starting pitchers and bullpens.

The Blue Jays' bullpen ranks 19th, while the Tigers' bullpen sits at 21st, indicating a slight edge for Toronto in the later innings. Betting markets suggest a close game, with the Blue Jays' moneyline set at -115, implying a 51% win probability, while the Tigers are at -105 with a 49% win probability. With both teams projected to score low runs (3.79 for the Blue Jays and 3.71 for the Tigers), this game could be a tight, low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty's slider utilization has jumped by 6.4% from last season to this one (24.8% to 31.2%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Javier Baez has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 2.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably lower than his 15.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Danny Jansen is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy batting order of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ernie Clement has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.83 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.3

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