Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 6/4/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Texas Rangers will host the Detroit Tigers at Globe Life Field on June 4, 2024. The Rangers, with a record of 29-31, are having a below-average season, while the Tigers hold a 30-30 record, indicating an average performance thus far.

The Rangers, led by their projected starting right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning, will look to bounce back from their recent loss against the Tigers. Dunning has started nine games this season, boasting a 4-3 win-loss record and a solid 3.94 ERA. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a 5.12 xERA and a 4.75 FIP, suggest that he may have been fortunate and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Tigers will send their right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty to the mound. Flaherty, ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started 11 games this year. Despite a 2-4 win-loss record, Flaherty has demonstrated his skills with an impressive 3.46 ERA. His 2.04 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform even better in the future.

The Rangers offense, ranked 13th best in MLB, has shown strength in team batting average and home runs, ranking second and fifth respectively. However, their stolen bases rank 25th, indicating a weakness in that area. The Tigers offense, ranked 21st in MLB, has struggled with team batting average and home runs, ranking 27th in both categories. Their stolen bases also rank low at 28th.

In their last encounter, the Tigers emerged victorious with a 2-1 win over the Rangers. Both teams had a closing Moneyline price of -110, indicating an expected close game. However, according to our projections, the Rangers have a higher win probability of 57%, compared to the Tigers' 43%. This suggests that there may be value in betting on the Rangers.

The game total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a low-scoring game. The Rangers have a low implied team total of 3.71 runs, while the Tigers' implied team total is slightly higher at 3.79 runs. Our projections estimate that the Rangers will score 4.34 runs on average, while the Tigers are projected to score 4.00 runs.

Overall, this game promises excitement as the Rangers aim to rebound and prove their strength against the Tigers. The pitching matchup between Dunning and Flaherty adds an extra layer of intrigue, with both pitchers having their share of successes and challenges this season. Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly watching as these two teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

In his last start, Jack Flaherty performed well and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

When it comes to his batting average, Javier Baez has suffered from bad luck this year. His .188 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .280.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #24 club in the game since the start of last season by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Dane Dunning has a mean projection of 2.28 earned runs in today's outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Josh Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+13.55 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+8.85 Units / 41% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.98 vs Texas Rangers 4.45

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