Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 6/5/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Jose Urena - Rangers

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On June 5, 2024, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Detroit Tigers at Globe Life Field. As the home team, the Rangers will be looking to improve their below-average season record of 29-32. The Tigers, with a record of 31-30, are having an average season. It will be an American League matchup featuring the Rangers as the home team.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Urena, who has started five games and made 15 bullpen appearances this year. Urena holds a 1-5 win/loss record with a decent ERA of 3.74. However, his 4.25 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Urena is ranked #311 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in MLB.

Opposing Urena on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda. Maeda has started nine games this season and holds a 2-2 win/loss record with a high ERA of 6.25. However, his 4.80 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

The Rangers offense ranks as the 13th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking second in the league, and team home runs, ranking fifth. However, their team stolen bases rank low at 25th. On the other hand, the Tigers offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB, with a low team batting average ranking of 27th and a lack of power, ranking 27th in team home runs.

Looking at the projections, Jose Urena is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing below-average earned runs and strikeouts. However, he is projected to give up a high number of hits and walks. Kenta Maeda is also expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, with below-average earned runs and strikeouts. He is projected to give up a high number of hits and walks as well.

Considering the team rankings, projected performance, and historical data, the Rangers seem to have an advantage in this matchup. The Tigers' lack of power may work in their favor against Urena, who is known for inducing ground balls. However, the Rangers' powerful offense could exploit Maeda's tendency to give up flyballs.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring game, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -130, giving them a 54% implied win probability. The Tigers have a moneyline of +110, with a 46% implied win probability.

As these two teams take the field, it will be an intriguing matchup to watch. The Rangers will aim to capitalize on their offensive prowess, while the Tigers will look to exploit Urena's groundball tendencies. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, this game has the potential to be a closely contested battle.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kenta Maeda's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (68.6% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jake Rogers has big-time power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (31.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Urena doesn't generate many whiffs (6th percentile K%) — great news for Rogers.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Detroit Tigers hitters collectively grade out 24th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jose Urena's 95-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 89th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Jonah Heim's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.77 ft/sec last year to 25.23 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Josh Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.05 Units / 60% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.44 vs Texas Rangers 4.72

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