Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction For 4/24/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays
• Run Line: Tigers 1.5 -205, Rays -1.5 175
• Money Line: Tigers 100, Rays -120
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 48%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 49.8%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 50.2%

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Detroit Tigers on April 24, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, with a season record of 12-13, are hosting the game as the home team, while the Tigers, having a great season with a record of 14-10, will be the away team.

The Rays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander, who has a win/loss record of 1-0 this season and an ERA of 4.79, which is below average. Despite his ERA, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him one of the worst pitchers in MLB. However, his 3.73 xERA suggests he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty, an average pitcher with a 4.44 ERA. His 2.95 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and may improve in future performances.

This game marks the third matchup between these two teams, with the Rays looking to bounce back after their last game against the unknown opponent. Meanwhile, the Tigers are coming off a successful game against another team.

When it comes to offensive performance, the Rays rank 23rd in MLB, while the Tigers rank 25th. However, the Rays excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league, and team home runs, ranking 4th. The Tigers, on the other hand, struggle in these categories, ranking 27th in both team batting average and team home runs. In terms of stolen bases, the Rays rank 2nd, while the Tigers rank 28th.

In the last 7 games, the Rays' best hitter has been Richie Palacios, who has recorded 5 runs, 1 home run, and a batting average of .333, with an impressive OPS of 1.133. For the Tigers, Riley Greene has been their standout hitter in the last week, recording 7 hits, 9 runs, 4 RBIs, 2 home runs, and a batting average of .333, with an outstanding OPS of 1.279.

Considering the pitching matchup, the Rays' Tyler Alexander, a high-flyball pitcher, may have an advantage against the Tigers' offense, which has struggled in the power department. The Tigers have hit the fourth-fewest home runs in MLB this season.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets expect a relatively average-scoring game. The Rays and Tigers both have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating a close matchup according to current moneylines.

Based on the available information, the Tigers have been having a more successful season so far and have a slight edge in starting pitching. However, the Rays' offensive prowess and the potential for Tyler Alexander to improve make this game an intriguing matchup to watch.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty's slider percentage has spiked by 10.7% from last season to this one (24.8% to 35.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Mark Canha will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With a .207 wOBA in the last two weeks, Randy Arozarena has been struggling at the plate.

• Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 57 away games (+14.47 Units / 22% ROI)

Tigers vs Rays Prediction: Tigers 4.31 - Rays 4.08

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