Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction For 4/23/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
• Run Line: Tigers 1.5 -155, Rays -1.5 135
• Money Line: Tigers 140, Rays -160
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 40%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 42.17%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 57.83%

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 23, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the Detroit Tigers at Tropicana Field. As the home team, the Rays will look to improve their 12-12 record and continue their average season. On the other hand, the Tigers have been performing well with a 13-10 record, marking a good season for them.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot, who has been above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Pepiot has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.37. Despite his average ERA, his 3.50 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Pepiot will be right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda, who has struggled this season with a 7.64 ERA. However, his 5.27 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

Both teams have had contrasting performances in terms of offense. The Rays rank as the 24th best offense in MLB, but they excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league. They also showcase their power with a ranking of 4th in team home runs and 2nd in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Tigers rank as the 25th best offense, with low rankings in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Rays are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. The Tigers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the Rays' average offense and the Tigers' struggling offense. With Pepiot's above-average performance and Maeda's potential for improvement, the Rays have the advantage on the mound. However, the outcome of the game will ultimately depend on how the teams' offenses perform.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Rogers in the 3rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot is projected to strikeout 6.2 batters in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Amed Rosario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (44% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 64 games at home (+16.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+18.75 Units / 34% ROI)

Tigers vs Rays Prediction: Tigers 3.85 - Rays 4.3

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