Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres Pick For 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Yu Darvish - Padres

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on September 4, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Padres, currently holding a strong record of 79-61, are vying for a playoff spot, while the Tigers sit at 70-69, struggling to find their footing.

Yu Darvish is projected to take the mound for the Padres, and his season has been characterized by above-average performance, ranking 72nd among approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. With a 3.20 ERA, he has shown flashes of brilliance, although his xFIP of 3.93 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. Darvish’s projections indicate he will pitch around 4.9 innings and allow approximately 2.1 earned runs, which, while not ideal, should be manageable against a Tigers offense that ranks 24th overall in MLB.

On the other side, Keider Montero is set to start for the Tigers. With a 5.17 ERA and a 4.36 xFIP, Montero has struggled this season, and his projections indicate he will allow an average of 2.9 earned runs over 4.7 innings pitched. His low strikeout rate (19.9 K%) could be a disadvantage against a Padres lineup that has been adept at making contact, ranking 1st in MLB for the least strikeouts.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Padres are favored to score 5.01 runs on average in this matchup, while the Tigers are projected to tally only 3.84 runs. With the Padres' offense ranking 1st in team batting average and their bullpen sitting at 2nd overall, they have the edge in this interleague matchup.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Among all starters, Keider Montero's fastball velocity of 94.3 mph ranks in the 78th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kerry Carpenter has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season's 94.6-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Yu Darvish to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Kyle Higashioka has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 44.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 33.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Kyle Higashioka (the Padres's expected catcher in today's game) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 44 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 56 games (+16.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Parker Meadows has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.84 vs San Diego Padres 5.01

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.