Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins Pick & Prediction – 4/19/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
• Run Line: Tigers 1.5 -170, Twins -1.5 145
• Money Line: Tigers 125, Twins -150
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 43%
• Minnesota Twins - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 40.09%
• Minnesota Twins - 59.91%

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

On April 19, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. As the home team, the Twins will look to improve their disappointing 6-11 record this season, while the Tigers aim to continue their above-average performance with a record of 10-9. This American League Central matchup promises an exciting game for fans and bettors alike.

The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Ryan, who has shown excellent form this season with an ERA of 2.60. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ryan is considered the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, solidifying his elite status among approximately 350 pitchers. He is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings, strike out 7.8 batters, and allow an average of 1.8 earned runs per game. However, his weakness lies in giving up hits and walks, with projections of allowing 4.1 hits and 1.4 walks on average.

On the other side, the Tigers will send right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty to the mound. Flaherty has had a slightly below-average season so far, with an ERA of 4.91. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Flaherty is projected to pitch around 5.6 innings, strike out 6.3 batters, and allow an average of 2.3 earned runs per game. Like Ryan, he struggles with hits and walks, with projections of allowing 4.8 hits and 2.4 walks on average.

In terms of offensive rankings, both teams have struggled this season. The Twins rank 27th in MLB in overall offense, while the Tigers rank 26th. However, the Twins have shown some power, ranking 7th in team home runs, while the Tigers have struggled in that department, ranking 27th. Both teams have a low ranking in stolen bases, with the Twins at 24th and the Tigers at 28th.

Taking a look at the bullpens, the Twins rank 15th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Tigers rank 11th. This suggests that both teams have an average bullpen, which could play a crucial role in the later innings of the game.

According to the current odds, the Twins are the betting favorite with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Tigers, as the underdog, have a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%. Based on these odds, the Twins have an average implied team total of 4.06 runs, while the Tigers have a low implied team total of 3.44 runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty has gone to his slider 10.8% more often this season (35.6%) than he did last year (24.8%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme groundball hitters like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's fastball velocity has increased 1.2 mph this year (92.8 mph) over where it was last season (91.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Byron Buxton's 14.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) is in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Minnesota Twins have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 49 away games (+18.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)

Tigers vs Twins Prediction: Tigers 3.34 - Twins 3.89

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.