Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins Pick For 7/3/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • David Festa - Twins

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins, sitting at 48-37, are having a solid season and are currently the favorites as they host the Detroit Tigers on July 3, 2024, at Target Field. The Tigers, lagging behind with a 38-47 record, have struggled throughout the season. This American League Central matchup sees the Twins looking to capitalize on their recent form and superior standing, especially since the two teams played yesterday, with Minnesota winning the series opener.

David Festa, the Twins' right-hander, takes the mound with a 1-0 record despite a troubling 9.00 ERA. However, Festa's 5.27 xFIP, as highlighted by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he's been unlucky and could see better days ahead. The projections indicate Festa will pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, striking out 5.1 and struggling with control, giving up 1.4 walks.

The Twins' offense has been one of their strong points, ranking 10th in MLB overall. They are especially potent when it comes to hitting home runs, standing 5th with notable performances from Carlos Correa, who has been on fire over the last week with a .471 batting average, 1.454 OPS, and 2 home runs.

On the other side, Keider Montero starts for the Tigers. With an 0-2 record and a brutal 9.35 ERA, Montero's 3.67 xFIP suggests he's also faced some unfortunate breaks. Over an average of 4.7 innings, projections have him allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.1 hits, striking out 4.2, and handing out 1.6 walks.

The Tigers' offensive struggles are evident as they rank 27th overall, with key metrics like batting average and home runs placing them near the bottom. Justyn-Henry Malloy has been their standout over the last week, batting .313 with a 1.040 OPS and 2 home runs.

Minnesota’s well-rounded prowess extends to their bullpen, ranked 5th, compared to Detroit's bullpen at 13th. With a high Game Total set at 9.0 runs, expect some fireworks, especially given Montero's high flyball rate against a powerful Twins lineup.

The Twins, as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, have an implied win probability of 59%. With their potent offense and favorable pitching matchup, Minnesota is well-positioned to clinch another win.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Justyn-Henry Malloy has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Detroit Tigers bats collectively grade out 23rd- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 26.6% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives at least 100 mph.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last game started and accumulated 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Byron Buxton has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 away games (+8.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.2 vs Minnesota Twins 5.04

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