Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Prediction For 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Detroit Tigers on September 16, 2024, both teams are looking for a critical victory in this American League Central matchup. The Royals, with a record of 82-68, are having an above-average season and are currently in a better position than the Tigers, who hold a record of 77-73 and are considered average this year. This series opener comes on the heels of a close contest yesterday, where the Royals fell to the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3, while the Tigers celebrated a 4-2 win against the Baltimore Orioles.

On the mound, the Royals are projected to start Seth Lugo, who has been solid this season, boasting a Win/Loss record of 16-8 and an impressive 2.94 ERA. Lugo's last outing was particularly noteworthy; he went 7 innings without allowing an earned run against the Chicago White Sox, striking out 10 batters. This performance underlines his capability as a reliable starter.

Meanwhile, the Tigers will counter with Casey Mize, who is still searching for consistency after allowing 4 earned runs in his last start against the Orioles. Mize's challenges could be exacerbated by facing a Royals offense ranked as the 12th best in MLB and 7th in batting average this season. They have a well-rounded lineup led by Bobby Witt Jr., who has been a standout contributor with 31 home runs and a .331 batting average this year.

With the Royals positioned as the betting favorites at -145, the projections suggest that they hold the upper hand, especially considering Lugo's strong performance and the Royals' recent offensive prowess. The Tigers, while competitive, may struggle against Lugo's strike-throwing style, especially given their offensive rankings, which place them as the 25th best in MLB. This match promises to be pivotal as both teams aim to establish momentum moving forward.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

In his last start, Reese Olson was rolling and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher in today's matchup) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to average, Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Freddy Fermin has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 97.3-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals hitters collectively rank among the best in the majors this year (3rd-) when assessing their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 82 of their last 144 games (+12.48 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 33 away games (+14.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+8.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.02 vs Kansas City Royals 4.58

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