Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros Best Bet – 6/15/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Justin Verlander - Astros

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers are set to clash on June 15, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in the second game of their series. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Astros holding a 32-38 record and the Tigers sitting at 33-36. Despite their struggles, this American League matchup features intriguing pitching dynamics that could sway the outcome.

The Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound. Verlander, with a 3-2 record and a 3.95 ERA over 10 starts, has shown flashes of his old self. However, his 4.79 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Verlander to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.8 batters. Despite these solid projections, his tendency to allow hits (5.0 per game) and walks (1.5 per game) could be concerning.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with Jack Flaherty, who boasts a 3.22 ERA and a 3-4 record over 12 starts. Flaherty's 2.11 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and might perform even better going forward. Projections have him pitching 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 5.6 batters. However, his high strikeout rate (33.5%) might not be as effective against the Astros, who rank 1st in MLB in avoiding strikeouts.

Offensively, the Astros have a clear edge. They rank 6th in overall offense, 2nd in team batting average, and 4th in team home runs. In contrast, the Tigers' offense ranks 23rd overall, 24th in batting average, and 23rd in home runs. Houston's Yordan Alvarez has been particularly hot, hitting .304 with 2 homers and a 1.153 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Gio Urshela has been the Tigers' standout, hitting .409 with a .935 OPS over the same period.

The Astros' bullpen, ranked 15th, will need to hold off a Tigers offense that has struggled all season. Although Detroit's bullpen ranks slightly better at 12th, the Astros' offensive firepower and home-field advantage make them the favorites with a -140 moneyline and an implied win probability of 56%.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty has relied on his slider 6.4% more often this season (31.2%) than he did last year (24.8%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme groundball bats like Riley Greene tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's matchup, Zach McKinstry is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Yordan Alvarez's 17.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

As a team, Houston Astros bats have performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 2nd-best in MLB.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.05 vs Houston Astros 4.5

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