Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 7/25/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers will face off on July 25, 2024, for the fourth game in their series at Progressive Field. The Guardians, sitting at 61-40, are having a stellar season and lead the American League Central. Conversely, the Tigers, with a 50-53 record, are experiencing an average season and are struggling to stay in the playoff race.

Cleveland comes into this game with momentum, having edged out Detroit 2-1 in their previous matchup on July 24. The Guardians were favored in that game with a Moneyline of -140, and they lived up to expectations. The Tigers, underdogs with a +120 Moneyline, couldn't overcome the Guardians' strong bullpen, which is ranked 1st in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the mound, the Guardians will start Gavin Williams, who has had an up-and-down season with a 4.50 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, suggesting he's been somewhat unlucky. Williams is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs while striking out 5.3 batters. His opponent, Kenta Maeda, has struggled mightily with a 7.07 ERA, though his 4.70 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could improve. Maeda is expected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.1 batters.

Offensively, the Guardians have a slight edge. They rank 12th in MLB in overall offense, 15th in batting average and home runs, and 8th in stolen bases. Their best hitter, Jose Ramirez, has been a force with 24 home runs and an .838 OPS. On the other side, the Tigers rank 24th in offense, 23rd in batting average, and 18th in home runs. Riley Greene has been their standout performer with a .267 batting average and a .851 OPS.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Guardians a 60% win probability for this game. With the Guardians being big favorites at -175 and an implied win probability of 61%, the projections align closely with the betting odds. The Tigers, with a +150 Moneyline and a 39% implied win probability, face an uphill battle. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring affair.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Kenta Maeda in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Justyn-Henry Malloy is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Detroit Tigers bats as a unit have been among the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) as far as their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's fastball spin rate has risen 114 rpm this season (2332 rpm) over where it was last year (2218 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Josh Naylor's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 90.3-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 75.2-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 87 games (+10.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Justyn-Henry Malloy has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.15 Units / 35% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.61 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.21

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