Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 7/5/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Carson Spiers - Reds

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers are set to clash on July 5, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in an Interleague matchup. The Reds, who have a 42-45 record and are having a below-average season, will be hosting the Tigers, who are struggling even more with a 39-48 record.

Carson Spiers is on the mound for the Reds. Although his 3.13 ERA looks impressive, his 4.27 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate and might regress. Spiers projects to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and striking out 3.9 batters, none of which are promising figures. This season, he has made 3 starts and 8 bullpen appearances, accumulating a 2-1 record.

On the other side, Reese Olson will start for the Tigers. Olson, who is ranked the 59th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, boasts a solid 3.32 ERA. Despite his 2-8 record, Olson projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and striking out 5.2 batters, which are all average metrics.

Offensively, neither team is setting the world on fire. The Reds rank 23rd in MLB in overall offense, 27th in batting average, and 20th in home runs. However, they do have a strength: their team ranks 1st in stolen bases. Jonathan India has been a standout recently, hitting .348 with a 1.097 OPS over the last week.

The Tigers, with the 26th best offense, rank 24th in batting average, 23rd in home runs, and a dismal 28th in stolen bases. Justyn-Henry Malloy has been hot, hitting .429 with a 1.324 OPS over the last week, providing a glimmer of hope for Detroit’s struggling lineup.

The Reds' bullpen is ranked 24th, while the Tigers' bullpen stands at 13th, indicating a slight edge for Detroit in late-game scenarios. Betting markets reflect a close contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. With a high game total set at 9.0 runs, expect a competitive game with likely offensive contributions from both sides.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Compared to average, Reese Olson has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.4 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Colt Keith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Zach McKinstry hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Carson Spiers must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary pitches a lot since the start of last season: 58.8% of the time, placing in the 75th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Stuart Fairchild has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 80.7-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+8.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.24 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.91

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