Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Pick For 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ty Madden - Tigers
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox host the Detroit Tigers at Guaranteed Rate Field on August 26, 2024, in what marks the fourth game of this series. Both teams find themselves in the lower tier of the standings, with the White Sox sitting at a dismal 31-100 record this season, while the Tigers hold a more respectable, yet average, 65-66 mark.

Davis Martin is projected to take the mound for the White Sox, showcasing a season ERA of 3.22, which suggests he has been somewhat lucky given his 4.43 xFIP. However, he has struggled with consistency, having allowed an average of 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks per outing. In stark contrast, Ty Madden will pitch for the Tigers, who has also had a rocky year, projecting to allow an average of 5.4 hits and 2.8 earned runs.

Despite their rankings, the Tigers' offense is considerably better than Chicago's dismal 30th ranked unit. However, the White Sox may find a glimmer of hope with Luis Robert showing signs of life, leading the team over the last week with a .429 batting average. Meanwhile, Zach McKinstry has been the standout for the Tigers, batting .500 in the same span.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections suggest the White Sox have a 47% win probability, slightly higher than the betting market indicates. This discrepancy may make betting on this ugly underdog an intriguing option, especially given that the White Sox have been undervalued throughout the season. The game's total is set at 9.0 runs, signaling expectations for an offensive showdown, but with both teams struggling to consistently perform, anything can happen.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.170) suggests that Spencer Torkelson has been very fortunate this year with his .212 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Matt Vierling has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin was on point in his previous start and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 41 games (+16.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+6.25 Units / 40% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.32 vs Chicago White Sox 4.58

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