Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Pick For 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Ky Bush - White Sox

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 24, 2024, the matchup promises to be pivotal for both teams. The White Sox have been struggling, currently standing at 31-98 this season, while the Tigers, at 63-66, are trying to secure their footing in a tight AL Central. In their previous game, the Tigers emerged victorious, which adds an extra layer of motivation for the White Sox to bounce back.

On the mound, the White Sox will send out Ky Bush, who has had a rough season with an 0-2 record in just three starts. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.68, advanced projections suggest he may be overperforming, as his xFIP sits at an alarming 7.24. This indicates he may face difficulties against a solid lineup like the Tigers. In contrast, Detroit will counter with Tarik Skubal, an elite lefty sporting a 14-4 record and a stellar 2.49 ERA over 25 starts. Skubal's ability to limit walks—boasting a low 5.4 BB%—presents a challenge for the White Sox, who rank as the 2nd least disciplined team in MLB when it comes to drawing walks.

In terms of offense, both teams rank poorly, with the White Sox coming in as the 30th best offense this season. The projections anticipate a low-scoring game, with the game total set at just 7.5 runs. However, the Tigers do have some bright spots, including Zach McKinstry, who has been on a hot streak with a .625 batting average over the last week.

As the odds favor the Tigers, the White Sox will need to overcome their dismal performance to find success in this matchup. With their starting pitcher struggling against one of the league's best, it may be an uphill battle for Chicago.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal has recorded 18.6 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Kerry Carpenter has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (96% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Matt Vierling has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Ky Bush will benefit from squaring off against 6 hitters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nick Senzel's average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87.4-mph average last season has dropped to 84-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 68 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 24 away games (+12.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Lenyn Sosa has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.85 Units / 36% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.19 vs Chicago White Sox 3.56

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