Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Pick For 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 23, 2024, both teams enter this matchup with differing trajectories. The White Sox, languishing at the bottom of the American League Central standings with a dismal record of 31-97, have struggled throughout the season. Conversely, the Tigers, sitting at 62-66, have been treading water, not quite contending but still showing glimpses of potential throughout the year.

In their last game, the Tigers faced off against the Chicago Cubs and were blown out, while the White Sox got a surprising win over the San Francisco Giants in their last outing. This series opener marks a critical moment for both teams, especially for the Tigers, who have been seeking momentum after some inconsistent performances.

On the mound, the White Sox will send Chris Flexen, who has had a challenging season with a 2-12 record and an ERA of 5.46. Despite ranking as the 294th best starting pitcher in MLB, Flexen's underlying metrics suggest he has faced some bad luck, as evidenced by his xERA of 4.96. He projects to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, which may not be enough to keep the White Sox competitive against a Tigers lineup that ranks 26th in MLB offensively.

Keider Montero, the projected starter for the Tigers, has also not been stellar, with a 4-5 record and an ERA of 5.28. However, with an xFIP of 4.25, there is room for improvement. Montero's projections suggest he will pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs as well.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this game presents an interesting betting opportunity. The White Sox are currently the underdogs at +135, reflecting their struggles this season. In contrast, the Tigers, as the favorites at -160, will likely look to leverage their marginally better offensive capabilities to secure a win.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero has notched a 5.28 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the variables most within a pitcher's control) this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Spencer Torkelson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 98.2-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all starters, Chris Flexen's fastball velocity of 90.7 mph is in the 11th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Andrew Benintendi's true offensive skill to be a .316, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .044 difference between that mark and his actual .272 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+19.30 Units / 138% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.87 vs Chicago White Sox 4.33

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