Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will look to build on their recent success against the Detroit Tigers in the second game of their interleague series, scheduled for August 21, 2024, at Wrigley Field. The Cubs secured a 3-1 victory over the Tigers in their last matchup on August 20, showcasing an effective performance from their pitching staff and solidifying Jameson Taillon’s role as a valuable arm despite his below-average ranking of 131st among MLB starters.

As the season progresses, the Cubs hold a record of 62-64, sitting just above the Tigers, who are currently at 61-65. The Cubs have had an average season, while the Tigers are experiencing below-average results. Taillon will take the mound for Chicago, projecting to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow approximately 2.3 earned runs. While his recent ERA of 3.62 indicates good performance, his xFIP of 4.17 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate.

On the other side, Beau Brieske will start for the Tigers. Although Brieske has been deemed an average pitcher, he’s struggled with his recent performance; in his last outing, he only managed to pitch 1 inning and allowed 1 earned run. His projections indicate he may only pitch about 1 inning today, which raises concerns for Detroit’s bullpen.

Offensively, both teams have had their struggles, with the Cubs ranking 21st in MLB and the Tigers even lower at 26th. However, Cubs' best hitter Ian Happ is heating up, boasting a .278 batting average and an OPS of 1.048 over the past week. Despite their low rankings, projections suggest a close matchup, with the Cubs expected to score around 4.08 runs while the Tigers are projected at 4.11 runs.

With an implied team total of 4.13 runs for the Cubs compared to a mere 3.37 runs for the Tigers, there may be value in betting on the Cubs as they aim to maintain momentum against their rivals.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Parker Meadows is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's game, Matt Vierling is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has averaged 17.4 outs per start this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .262 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games at home (+11.05 Units / 38% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.07 vs Chicago Cubs 4.04

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